Using evidence synthesis to build
models of ecological systems

Overarching questions

1. How can we develop better a priori models of ecological systems?
2. How can we evaluate the importance of interacting mechanisms operating in systems with incomplete information?
3. How can we use our knowledge of interacting mechanisms to generate better species distribution models?

Study system(s)

Chapter 1: Combining graph theory with systematic review to develop conceptual, process-based models of species occurrence

• How are models of species occurrence currently being developed in ecology?
• How can we use a standard approach to develop models even for systems with limited published information?

Chapter 2: Meta-analytic structural equation model of mechanisms underlying area sensitivity

• What are the most important mechanisms and pathways leading from patch size to decreased population density?
• How do the underlying mechanisms interact to influence population density?

Chapter 3: Bayesian path analysis of food availability and nest success in forest fragments

• How does food availability affect nesting success in forest fragments?
• What factors play the most important role in structuring food available to nesting pairs in forest fragments?

Chapter 4: Accounting for spatial error in SDMs with occupancy modeling and biotic interactions

• What are the main biotic sources of spatial mismatch in species distribution models?
• How important are biotic interactions in shaping species distributions?